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Author: Khaiser Ali Shah
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Managerial Economics & Quantitative Techniques
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ATLANTIC INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY
Summer 2007 Phase ­ II




CONTENTS


1. DEVELOPMENT OF MARKET

2. COMPANY PROFILE

3. PRODUCT PROFILE

4. PRODUCTION & SALES

5. MARKET SHARE

6. DEMAND FORCASTING

7. PROSPECTS

8. PROBLEMS
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ATLANTIC INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY
Summer 2007 Phase ­ II


MODULE II - Part I - DEMAND ANALYSIS & ELASTICITY OF DEMAND

Demand is the willingness to buy a commodity and ability to buy it.

Point of equilibrium Px = Mix

Demand is always referred with time & price.

Demand of commodity can be defined as quantity of the commodity at a particular price
during a given point of time.
* Demand and price are inversely related. Other than price demand for a commodity
depends upon a host of other factors like:

i.)
income of consumer

ii.)
prices of related commodities

iii.)
taste & preferences

iv.)
expectations regarding future price

v.)
geographical location

vi.)
composition of population etc.

These are the determinants of demand.

*
Price Demand
; Price Demand

i.) Income of consumers

Income and Demand are Directly related.

Income Demand
Income Demand
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Summer 2007 Phase ­ II


People's purchasing power increases or decreases as case may be.

ii.) Prices of related commodities

a.)
If substitutes of a particular commodity are available in the market and the price of
the substitute rises, demand for the commodity rises.

Substitute Demand


Substitute Demand



b.)
If complements are available





Complements Demand


BUT


Complements does not always work. For example :





Car Petrol


BUT



Petrol Car X

iii.) Changes in taste & preferences

If something is in fashion, demand for the product is high. If not in fashion, demand may be
low.

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Summer 2007 Phase ­ II


iv.) People's expectation regarding future prices

If expectation of future prices is high, then more demand is there at present and vice versa.

*
Other than above mentioned determinants, quantity demanded is also dependant upon
population, composition of population, geographical conditions etc.

For example :

i.)
Population Demand

ii.)
More the male population, greater the demand for Male products

iii.)
Blankets : Price of Blankets doesn't affect Mumbai but Canada is affected.

Demand Curve
Demand Curve is downward sloping. The factors responsible for downward sloping demand
curve is as follows :

i.)
Law of Diminishing Return
According to this law every additional unit consumed would give less and less satisfaction to
the consumer. So the amount of money the consumer is willing to pay for additional unit of
a commodity becomes lesser and lesser. So consumer will purchase additional commodity
only when the price is lower. Therefore, more quantity is brought at a lower price.

ii.)
Income Effect
As the price of the commodity falls, the consumer's real income increases. His purchasing
power increases. He is in a position to buy more of the given commodity.

iii.)
Change in the number of consumers
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Summer 2007 Phase ­ II


As the commodity becomes cheaper, many more people who couldn't afford it earlier will be
in a position to buy the commodity. As a result, number of consumers will increase. Hence,
the demand for a commodity goes up when it's price goes down.

iv.)
Substitution Effect
When the price of a commodity goes up and the substitutes are cheaper, then the people will
go for commodities which are cheaper. Thus demand for commodity will go down.


v.)
Diverse use of a commodity
Many commodities can be used for several purposes. When the price is high, it's use is
restricted to a few applications. When it becomes cheaper, people can afford to use it in
other ways as well. As a result, demand for a commodity goes up as price falls.

The Law of Demand

The Law of Demand expressing the inverse relationship between quantities demanded and
price is valid in most of the situations. But there are some exceptional situations under which
there may be a direct relationship between price and quantity demanded.

One of the exceptions is associated with THORESTEIN VEBLER.
According to him, if consumer measures utility of a commodity only by its price & nothing
else, then they tend to buy more of a commodity at a higher price and less of it at lower price.
These goods are known as VEBLER'S GOODS. These goods loose their appeal when price
falls. Therefore, the laws of demand do not apply to these goods, which are status symbols.

Another exception is associated with ROBERT GIFFEN. He observed that when the price of
bread was rising in Britain, British workers brought more of bread. They substituted bread
for meat, because meat was very expensive and unaffordable. Such goods which are the
basic requirements are known as GIFFEN'S GOODS. For example, potatoes, bajra etc.,
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ATLANTIC INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY
Summer 2007 Phase ­ II


which are generally consumed by the poor families and a large part of consumer's income is
spent on these goods. Price effect is negligible.

i. e. P.E. = S.E.+ve < I. E. ­ve
But normally,
P.E. = S.E.+ve > I.E.-ve
Where,
S.E. = Substitution Effect &
I.E. = Income Effect may be ­ve, +ve.

Laws of Demand do not hold good in the times of EMERGENCIES such as Flood, Famine,
war etc. This is because of a fear of shortages of goods in future increase the demand.
People become panicky and buy more amount of goods even at higher prices.

Laws of Demand does not hold true during the PROSPERITY PHASE and the
DEPRESSION PHASE. During prosperity, while the prices rise, the demand for the goods
also keeps rising, because the income of the people is also rising, during this phase.
On the other hand, during depression, while the prices fall, the demand of the goods and
services also falls, because during Depression employment and incomes in the Economy are
low. Thought he prices are affordable, people are not in a position to buy goods and services.
More over since the prices are falling, people expect a further fall in prices in future and
therefore, postpone their buying.
So the low of demand does not hold true during phases of prosperity and depression phases
of the Business cycle.
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ATLANTIC INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY
Summer 2007 Phase ­ II


Boom
Prosperity
Recession


EXTENSION & CONTRACTION OF DEMAND

It refers to increase in quantity demanded or decrease in quantity demanded with respect to
change in price only.
Other determinants remaining constant, an EXTENSION of demand due to a fall in price,
there is an increase in demand and vice versa. If the price of a commodity increases and
demand decreases, it is known as CONTRACTION.
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ATLANTIC INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY
Summer 2007 Phase ­ II



P2
Price
P1
Q1
Q2
Quantity



INCREASE & DECREASE IN DEMAND

When there is a change in quantity demanded due to factors other than price, it is known as
INCREASE or DECREASE of demand.
In case of Increase in demand, the quantity demanded increases at same price i. e. at the same
price the consumers are prepared to but more and more. Therefore, the demand curve shifts
towards the right.

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ATLANTIC INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY
Summer 2007 Phase ­ II


D1
D2
P
Price
Q1
Q3
Quantity

A fall in quantity demanded due to any other factor than price is known as Decrease in
demand. i. e. at the same price less quantity is demanded. In case of decrease in demand the
demand curve shifts to the left.

CLASSIFICATION OF DEMAND

Autonomous & Induced demand

Autonomous Demand is that demand which is not tied up with demand for other goods &
services. It is independent of the use of other goods.
For example : Consumer Goods.

Derived or induced Demand is that demand which is dependent on the demand for some
other product. It is known also known as derived demand.
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Summer 2007 Phase ­ II


For example : Producer Goods. He demand for inputs depends on the demand for the
finished goods.

Industry or Company Demand

Demand faced by an individual firm is known as company demand. But demand faced by
several companies producing same commodity (Substance) i. e. industry is known as
Industry Demand. Company demand is a small percentage of the Industry Demand.
Individual / Market Demand

Demand for certain products can be studied not only in its totality but also by breaking it up
in two different segments on the basis of product, use, distribution channel, age, income etc.
Division of demand into different segments gives rise to the concept of Market Segment
Demand.
Problems of pricing, distribution etc. fall in the purview of analysis of market segment.
Demand for the entire market in totality is known as Market Demand.
Study of Sales Forecasting, demand forecasting etc. relate to the total market.

Demand for Durable & Non-durable Goods

Durable Goods are those goods which are used over a period of time. They need Present as
well as future demand. They can be consumer or producer goods.
Non-durable goods are those goods which deteriorate in quality with passage of time and
become non-useable after the initial usage. e.g. Fruits etc. There are perishable or non-
durable consumer goods. Goods like coal, electricity etc. are non-durable producer goods.

LONG TERM & SHORT TERM DEMAND

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Summer 2007 Phase ­ II


Short term demand refers to existing demand which is dependent on seasonal pattern and
cyclical pattern.
In short term existing buyers will raise the demand of the product, if price comes down.
Short term demand is a temporary demand.

Long term demand does not depend on seasonal or cyclical situation. Long term demand
trends are useful to Business firms for investments, inventories and product planning.

ELASTICITY OF DEMAND

Elasticity of demand refers to the degree of change in quantity demanded or the degree of
responsiveness of the quantity to a change in any one of the determinants of demand, the
other determinants remaining constant.

Elasticity of demand may be of following types :


1)
Price Elasticity

2)
Income Elasticity

3)
Cross Elasticity

4)
Promotional Elasticity






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Summer 2007 Phase ­ II





Measurement of Price Elasticity

1)
Percentage Method

According to the percentage method, there is a proportionate change in quantity demanded to
a proportionate change in price.

^ Q
q
ep = _______ = ^ Q x p
^ P ^ P q
p


ep = ^ Q x p
^ P q

The value of Price Elasticity varies from 0 to infinity (0-infinity)
i.) Elasticity will be less than 1, if % change in quantity demanded is less than the %
change in price.
ii.) Elasticity will be > 1, if the % change in demand is > than the change in price.
i.e. ep > 1 ; ^ Q > ^ P
q p
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Summer 2007 Phase ­ II


iii.) Elasticity will be infinity, when a small change in price will bring about a very large
change in demand.
i.e. ep = Oo

D
D1
D2
Price
D3
Quantity Demanded

2)
Total Outlay Method

Total outlay refer to the total expenditure of the product. By knowing the change in total
expenditure due to a change in the price, we can find out the elasticity of the demand. By
this method we don't get the exact value of elasticity. We can only say whether

ep = 1 or ep > 1 or ep < 1

ep = 1 : Total expenditure on commodity does not change due to change in price.

e. g. P = Rs. 5; Q = 100 units


P Rs. 4; Q 125 units

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ATLANTIC INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY
Summer 2007 Phase ­ II


ep > 1 : If a fall in price leads to an increase in total layout or a rise in price leads
to a decrease in total outlay.
e. g. P = Rs. 5; Q = 100 units 500 units
P = Rs. 4; Q = 140 units 560 units

ep < 1 : If total outlay declines with a fall in price and rises with a rise in price.

e.g. P = Rs. 5; Q = 100 units 500 units

P Rs. 4; Q 120 units 480 units



Ep>1
Ep=1
Ep<1


3)
Geometric Method

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ATLANTIC INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY
Summer 2007 Phase ­ II


On a straight line demand curve value of elasticity can be measured by the ratio of cover
segment upon upper segment.

ep = Lower segment
Upper segment

A
L

P
L1

S

P1
M

M1

B
Quantity Demanded

ep = M M 1 x O P (1) (From % method)
P P 1 O M

Therefore : M M 1 = S L 1 ; O P = M L ; P P 1 = S L
Substituting: ep = S L 1 x M L
S L O M (From % method of equation 1)
Therefore : ^ LSL1 === ^ LMB (<LSL1 & <LMB = 900 ; <SL1L & <MBL are





(corresponding angles ­ by AAA test)
Therefore : ep = M B x M L
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ATLANTIC INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY
Summer 2007 Phase ­ II


M L O M
^ AOB ==== ^ LMB

ep = M B = L M = L B
P L A P A C

= L B = Lower segment
A L Upper segment ( Hence proved )

If the demand curve is a curve and not a straight line, draw the tangent to the point &
calculate.











4)
Arc Method

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ATLANTIC INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY
Summer 2007 Phase ­ II


The point method can for elasticity can be used only for marginal changes. Generally, the
change in price is not very small. In that case, we have to measure elasticity over the
substantial range of the demand curve.

Arc Elasticity (ep) = ^ Q
(Q1 + Q2)
2
^ P
(P1 + P2)


2






ep = ^ Q x P1 + P2




^ P Q1 + Q2


DETERMINANTS OF ELASTICITY OF DEMAND

Elasticity of demand depends on nature of commodity. If the commodity is a necessity, a
change in price will not lead to a change in demand for that product. Similarly, goods with
the status symbol also have an inelastic demand. These goods are high priced goods and
only the richer section of society can afford these goods. Even with a change in price,
demand does not change much for goods which are luxurious in nature.

Availability of substitutes

If substitutes are available in the market, demand for commodities will be relatively elastic.
If substitutes are not available, demand will be inelastic in nature.

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ATLANTIC INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY
Summer 2007 Phase ­ II


Price of product

If the price of a product is very low, demand is inelastic in nature. A rise in price or a fall in
price is not going to change the demand for the product.

Position of the product in the consumer's budget

If the amount of money spent on the product is a small percentage of the consumer's income,
the demand of the product will be inelastic in nature.

Postponement of demand

If the demand for a product can be postponed to a future date, demand will be relatively
inelastic. If demand can be postponed, the people will be willing to pay a higher price.
Therefore, the demand will be inelastic in nature.




Number of users

If the commodity can be used for a large number of purposes, its demand will go up with a
fall in price. Therefore, the demand for the product will be elastic in nature, on the other
hand single use goods will have an inelastic demand.

IMPORTANCE OF KNOWLEDGE OF ELASTICITY OF DEMAND

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ATLANTIC INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY
Summer 2007 Phase ­ II


Government decision making

Knowledge of elasticity is of great importance in framing important policies of the
government like tax policies, trade policies, agricultural pricing policy etc.


i.)
Tax policy

Government imposes various taxes for raising revenue. While imposing taxes and fixing tax
rates, the knowledge of elasticity becomes very important. While imposing taxes , the
government has to keep in mind the nature of elasticity of demand. For goods which have an
elastic demand, high tax rates can not be fixed. Fixing the taxes or increasing would imply a
rise in price of the product. If the demand for a product is elastic, with rise in price, quantity
demanded will come down. For goods having inelastic demand, a rise in tax will fetch more
revenue to the government.


ii.)
International trade policy

Knowledge of elasticity is of great importance in international trade, if the goods exported
have an inelastic demand. Domestic country is at a favorable position to as it can quote a
high price for its exports. If Imports have an elastic demand, it is favorable for a domestic
country. The success of devaluation also depends on elasticity of demand. Devaluation
refers to lowering value of domestic currency against a foreign currency. Devaluation makes
Exports cheaper and imports costlier. However, it will be successful only when exports are
elastic in nature and imports are also elastic in nature. Government frames international
trade policies according to the elasticity of demand.


iii.)
Agricultural policies

Government fixes up the minimum price of agricultural products in order to prevent a fall in
the price of the agricultural produce during a good harvest. When the harvest is good and
productivity is high, there is a great supply of food grains in the market. But the demand for
food grains and the agricultural products is inelastic in nature. Therefore, prices of
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Summer 2007 Phase ­ II


agricultural products fall because of excess of supply. This is a loss to farming community.
Therefore, minimum support prices are fixed by the government to prevent price of crops
from falling to a very low level.
In order to fix the price, knowledge of elasticity becomes very important. Certain products
are necessities and yet there is a shortage of these products in the market. To prevent rise in
price of such necessities the government fixes a price ceiling.
It helps government to identify certain services as public utility services. Certain services
have an inelastic demand because it is a necessity and at the same time there is a scarcity of
such services. In order to prevent growth of mono[poly and exploitation of the consumer,
these services are taken over by the government and declared as public utility and provided
to the public at a highly subsidized rate.


iv.)
Business decision-making

Pricing policy is an important part of the business decisions. The prices that are fixed should
cover the cost of production and fetch profits for the producer. The producer will always try
to maximize his profits. A higher price will fetch a higher profit but it will not always be
possible for the producer to charge a higher price. In case of goods having an elastic demand,
a rise in price will lead to a fall in quantity demanded bringing down the profits of the
producer. So, the producer will not be successful in charging a high price and making more
profits.

Knowledge of elasticity and trade unions

When the workers bargain for the higher wages, whether they will be successful or not
depends on the nature of elasticity of the product which they help to produce. Higher wages
will increase the cost of production. The cost of production is reflected in the price of the
product. Thus the price of the product will rise. If the demand of the product is elastic in
nature, the quantity demanded will fall with a rise in price. As a result many workers will
loose their jobs. So for products having elastic demand, the workers demand for higher
wages will not be successful.
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ATLANTIC INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY
Summer 2007 Phase ­ II


BIBLIOGRAPHY:

1.
An Introduction to Management Science: quantitative approaches to decision making
­ DR Anderson, DJ Sweeney, TA Williams ­ 2005

2.
Ecological Economics: the science and management of sustainability ­ R Constanza ­
1992

3.
The Measurement of Productive Efficiency: Techniques and Applications ­ HO
Fried, CA Lovell, SS Schmidt ­ 1993

4.
Differential Games in Economics and Management Science ­ EJ Dockner ­ 2000

5.
Forecasting and Management of Technology ­ AL Porter ­ 1991

6.
Numerical Methods in Economics ­ KL Judd ­ 1998

7.
The Economics of the Trade Union ­ AL Booth ­ 1995

8.
Application of Quantitative Techniques for the Prediction of Bank Acquisition
Targets ­ F Pasiouras, C Zopounidis ­ 2005

9.
Strategic Business Forecasting: The Complete Guide to Forecasting Real World
Company Performance ­ JK Shim - 2000

10. Accounting and Business Economics in Spain ­ VM Julve - European Accounting
Review, 1998 - Taylor & Francis

11. Reverse Logistics: quantitative models for closed-loop supply chains ­ R Dekker ­
2004

12. Economic Transition, Strategy and the Evolution of Management Accounting
Practices ­ SW Anderson, WN Lanen, International Motor Vehicle- 1996 -
imvp.mit.edu


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