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How will extreme weather impact 70% of the world’s population in just 20 years?
Can rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions still prevent severe climate disasters?
What cascading effects could heatwaves, floods, and wildfires have on our future?
Use your research skills and write about how different climate models compare in predicting the regional impacts of extreme weather events under various emission scenarios, and what are the key uncertainties in these projections? Use credible sources such as academic journals, educational websites, and expert interviews to gather information and present a well-rounded answer.
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A staggering new study has revealed that nearly 70% of the world’s population will experience extreme weather events within the next two decades, unless immediate action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Conducted by researchers at the Center for International Climate Research (CICERO) and the University of Reading, the study highlights the urgent need for global climate action to mitigate the devastating impacts of climate change.
According to secondary research, Physicist Bjørn Samset from CICERO warned, “In the best case, we calculate that rapid changes will affect 1.5 billion people,” but this lower estimate assumes significant and immediate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions—something the world has yet to achieve. If emissions continue at their current levels, 70% of Earth’s population, or more than five billion people, could be exposed to extreme weather changes.
Greenhouse gas emissions
Source: Obozrevatel
Extreme weather events such as heatwaves, floods, and droughts have already become more frequent and severe in many parts of the world. For instance, Pakistan endured a catastrophic heatwave in 2022, immediately followed by unprecedented flooding, leaving millions in crisis. These events are becoming increasingly common, and the study indicates that much of this future climate disruption is already locked in, even if global emissions were to be dramatically reduced today.
Samset emphasizes that societies must prepare for “a much higher likelihood of unprecedented extreme events” over the next one to two decades. From heat stress and increased mortality to the destruction of ecosystems and food production, the consequences of unchecked climate change are far-reaching and will impact nearly every aspect of human life.
Extreme weather conditions risking human and ecological health
Source: SciTechDaily.com
Using advanced climate simulations, the team led by Dr. Carley Iles found that tropical and subtropical regions—where about 70% of the global population resides—are most vulnerable to extreme changes in temperature and precipitation. These regions are home to billions of people, and under a high-emission scenario, they will face some of the most significant weather-related challenges.
Even in a scenario where emissions are sharply curtailed, the study estimates that around 1.5 billion people will still be affected by extreme weather events. The research also highlights the overlap of multiple extreme weather events, where the occurrence of one event, such as a heatwave, may exacerbate the impacts of another, like drought or flooding.
A Global Crisis on Multiple Fronts
The consequences of this intensifying weather crisis are vast. Heatwaves, for example, will cause more frequent and intense heat stress, increasing mortality among both humans and animals. Agricultural productivity is likely to suffer, as crops wilt under extreme temperatures or are washed away by torrential rains. Ecosystems, already stressed by rising temperatures, may face irreparable damage.
Similarly, extreme rainfall events will lead to destructive flooding, damaging homes, infrastructure, and farmlands. Floods also accelerate soil erosion, degrade water quality, and increase the risk of waterborne diseases. In some cases, the interaction of extreme events will create devastating outcomes. For instance, the dry conditions and increased dry lightning have fueled more frequent wildfires, particularly in areas already grappling with drought.
According to secondary research, Jennifer Francis, a climate scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, likened the situation to living in a war zone. “Like people living in a war zone with the constant thumping of bombs and clatter of guns, we are becoming deaf to what should be alarm bells and air-raid sirens,” she said in response to new data from Europe’s Copernicus Climate Service, which showed the hottest Northern Hemisphere summer on record in 2023.
Source: Meteogiornale
While reducing air pollution is essential for public health, it could paradoxically exacerbate climate impacts in some regions. Meteorologist Laura Wilcox from the University of Reading explains that air pollution has historically masked some of the effects of global warming, particularly over Asia. A rapid clean-up of air pollution could accelerate warming in certain areas, leading to even more drastic changes in extreme weather patterns, including a disruption of the Asian summer monsoons.
This means that even while cleaning the air, we must brace for stronger and more frequent extreme weather events. Wilcox warns that the combination of global warming and air pollution reduction will likely trigger a cascade of severe weather events over the coming decades.
Adaptation and Mitigation: The Way Forward
The implications of this study are clear: there is no longer a choice between adapting to climate change or mitigating its effects. Both must happen simultaneously and on a global scale. Countries must continue to work toward reducing emissions in line with the Paris Agreement, but they must also invest in infrastructure and systems to adapt to the changes that are already inevitable.
Efforts to adapt to extreme weather include improving disaster preparedness, bolstering the resilience of infrastructure, and protecting vulnerable ecosystems. Without these measures, societies will struggle to cope with the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.
Dr. Iles and her team stress that while cutting emissions can reduce some of the worst impacts, we are still in for a period of unprecedented and rapid change. “These conclusions emphasize the need for both continued mitigation and adaptation to potentially unprecedented changes over the next 20 years, even under a low-emissions scenario,” Iles writes.
The Road Ahead
The study’s findings underscore the urgency of the climate crisis. The next two decades will be critical in shaping the future of life on Earth. While reducing emissions remains crucial, preparing for the inevitable consequences of climate change is equally important. Failure to act will leave billions of people vulnerable to the worsening impacts of extreme weather, from heatwaves to floods and wildfires.
As the world continues to grapple with rising temperatures and more frequent natural disasters, the message from scientists is clear: the time for action is now. Governments, businesses, and individuals must work together to cut emissions, build climate resilience, and safeguard the future for generations to come. The price of inaction is simply too high.
If this article triggers any interest in knowing how extreme weather conditions can impact humans in next 20 years, then AIU offers a list of Mini courses, Blogs, News articles and many more on related topics that one can access such as:
The Bad News of Climate Change: A Crisis We Can’t Ignore
Renewable Energy: A Key to Combating Climate Change
Understanding Climate Change: A Call to Action for a Sustainable Future
Understanding Climate Change and How to Contribute to Solutions
Climate Change: Understanding the Crisis and How You Can Help
Unveiling the Chemistry of Climate Change: Decoding the Role of Greenhouse Gases
Unraveling the Chemistry of Climate Change
AIU also offers a comprehensive array of recorded live classes spanning various subjects. If any topic piques your interest, you can explore related live classes. Furthermore, our expansive online library houses a wealth of knowledge, comprising thousands of e-books, thereby serving as a valuable supplementary resource.
The Bad News of Climate Change: Underreported Worst case Scenarios by Tobias R
The Climate Fresco by Niavo Landihajaina R
The chemistry of climate change by Tyler Gleckler
More extreme weather tied to humans
Understanding Severe Weather Events
The Evolving Role of Humans in Weather Prediction and Communication
Under the Weather : Reimagining Mobility in the Climate Crisis
References
Extreme Weather to Hit 70% of Humans in Next 20 Years, Study Warns – Science News
Extreme Weather to Hit 70% of Humans in Next 20 Years, Study Warns : ScienceAlert
Extreme weather to impact 70 per cent of humans in next 20 years, reveals study
Is Our Weather Turning Against Us? Scientists Predict Rapid Escalation of Extreme Weather
Extreme Weather to Hit 70% of Humans in Next 20 Years, Study | elink
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